~/budget-fr/pensions COR scenarios · spending · demographics

French pensions, tested over the long run

Pensions are the largest item of public spending: 13.9% of GDP (€407bn) in 2024, nearly a quarter of public spending. On unchanged legislation, that share stays broadly stable to 2070, held down by a rising effective retirement age (62.9 → 64.6) and pensions that lag wages (52.3% → 45.1%). Yet the system runs a deficit under every COR scenario, because it is mainly the resources that fall.

Realised

13.9% GDP

pension spending 2024 (€407bn)

Realised

1.8

contributor per retiree (≈ 1.4 by 2070)

2.6

working-age (20-64) per 65+ (≈ 1.8 by 2070)

Projection

−1.4% GDP

system balance in 2070 (reference), in deficit under every scenario

Pension spending (% of GDP) by productivity scenario, 2024 → 2070

+0.7%/yr (reference)+0.4%/yr+1.0%/yr

COR, June 2025 report. 2024 realised; 2030-2070 projections. 2070 range: 13.9% (+1.0%/yr) to 14.5% (+0.4%/yr). 2023 reform (age 64): implementation suspended from September 2026.

Key takeaway

The number of contributors per retiree falls from 1.8 to 1.4 by 2070; spending holds as a share of GDP, but the balance stays negative under every COR scenario.

Full method and sources in the complete dossier