~/budget-fr/climate TRACC trajectory · IPCC · cost of crises
France's climate: the warming and its cost
France's warming is already measured: +2.2°C over 2015-2024 versus pre-industrial, about 1.3 to 1.4 times faster than the global average. The State's reference trajectory for adaptation (TRACC) takes this to +2.7°C by 2050 and +4°C by 2100. On the financial side, insured losses have more than tripled in forty years, and natural-disaster costs could climb 40 to 60% by 2050, drought leading.
France's warming level (°C vs pre-industrial)
Observed: Météo-France. 2050/2100: TRACC reference trajectory.
Global warming 2081-2100 per the IPCC (°C)
IPCC AR6, median values by emissions scenario (SSP). TRACC (+3°C world) sits between SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0.
Projected rise in natural-disaster costs by 2050 (climate effect)
CCR-Météo-France (2023), intermediate scenario. +60% for all perils incl. exposure growth.
Average insured losses (€bn/yr, by period)
France Assureurs 2024. Insured cost, constant euros; more than tripled in 40 years.
A scenario is not a forecast: TRACC (+4°C in France by 2100) is used to size adaptation. Insured disaster costs, already up from €1.5bn to €5.3bn/yr, could rise further.